Four critical developments that will determine Malaysia’s political future

Nehru Sathiamoorthy

The year ahead promises to be one of the most turbulent in Malaysia’s recent political history.

From crucial state elections that could reshape the balance of power, to fracturing coalitions threatening to collapse, the country stands at a critical juncture.

Four developments in particular will determine whether the current political order survives – or crumbles under the weight of its own contradictions.

1. State elections in Johor, Malacca and Sarawak

By far the most consequential political development anticipated in 2026 is the series of state elections expected in Johor, Malacca and Sarawak.

In the last Johor and Malacca state elections, Umno secured convincing victories under the leadership and shadow of Najib Razak.

That political reality no longer exists. Najib is now imprisoned, and following repeated and decisive defeats in court, it is increasingly clear he is likely to spend the remainder of his life behind bars.

With its once-winning general removed from the battlefield, Umno now faces an existential question. Will the party be galvanised by Najib’s downfall and fight to reclaim his legacy, or will it be so demoralised that it collapses under the weight of his absence?

The answer may emerge as early as March 2026, when Umno is expected to hold its party elections.

The mood of the grassroots, shaped heavily by Najib’s final legal defeat, will probably determine whether Umno enters the coming state elections with resolve – or resignation.

The Sarawak test

Even more critical is the Sarawak state election, widely expected to take place in 2026.

Its outcome will speak volumes – not only about the future of the Pakatan Harapan-led government in Putrajaya, but about the long-term cohesion of the Malaysian federation itself.

After suffering a heavy defeat in Sabah, Putrajaya simply cannot afford to lose Sarawak.

Yet the uncomfortable truth is this: Putrajaya does not appear to have a realistic chance of winning there.

Sabah’s recent political revolt was driven by the ‘Sabah First’ ideology – an idea originally inspired by Sarawak’s own ‘Sarawak First’ doctrine.

If the imitator was able to inflict such a decisive defeat on the federal government, it is difficult to imagine the original being any less brutal.

Should Putrajaya lose Sarawak by a margin equal to or worse than its loss in Sabah, that defeat is likely to generate political momentum that carries through to the next general election, projected for 2027.

It could precipitate the collapse of the PH-led “Madani” (civil and trustworthy) government.

More troubling still, repeated electoral thrashings in Borneo could serve as the psychological and political catalyst for renewed secessionist sentiment. If not managed well, this could accelerate the unravelling of the federation itself.

Considering all this, the three state elections – Johor, Malacca and Sarawak – stand head and shoulders above all other developments as the single most anticipated political event of 2026.

2. Unity government fractures?

Almost every major component of the unity government has, at one point or another, threatened to walk away.

Umno says it might leave. The MIC says it might leave. The DAP says it might leave. The MCA says it might leave.

But will any of them actually do so?

Following its poor showing in the Sabah election, a visibly panicked DAP set itself a six-month deadline to push for reforms and restore public confidence.

However, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke clarified that the DAP would not let the government fall until the next general election, despite potentially reassessing its role after six months.

After Anwar Ibrahim announced a cabinet reshuffle – and after the government firmly rejected the idea of recognising the Unified Examination Certificate (CEC) – the DAP has since grown noticeably quiet.

Whether the DAP will honour its timeline or quietly move past it remains an open question – one that may only be answered by mid-2026.

The DAP’s tensions with UMNO extend beyond policy.

Umno’s leaders have expressed anger over the way certain DAP politicians – most notably Puchong MP Yeo Bee Yin – appeared to celebrate Najib’s court verdict. Najib’s subsequent conviction in the 1MDB case, which added another 15 years in prison and billions in fines, further inflamed Umno’s grassroots, reigniting calls for the party to exit the unity government in protest.

On a smaller but still relevant front, the MIC – which has openly discussed leaving Barisan Nasional and the unity government for months – appears increasingly likely either to exit or be forced out in early 2026.

The MCA, another minor coalition partner, may also finally be compelled to decide whether it wishes to remain within the unity framework.

Whether these threats are genuine or mere political posturing remains unclear.

But if a sufficient number of parties do leave, the critical question becomes unavoidable: can the unity government survive if everyone threatens to leave – and some actually do?

3. Opposition realignment

Perikatan Nasional has long struggled to sustain a coalition that runs against the natural order of politics.

Why is it against the order of nature? Because PN was led by its weaker partner.

Bersatu, which insisted on leading PN, is weaker than Pas by nearly every meaningful metric: party machinery, grassroots reach, ideological clarity, leadership depth, membership size and overall public support.

Yet Bersatu remains unwilling either to improve itself sufficiently to justify leadership – or to humble itself and accept Pas as the coalition’s natural leader.

This unresolved contradiction has strained Bersatu–Pas relations for years.

The latest manifestation of that strain surfaced in the Perlis chief minister dispute, where Bersatu attempted to wrest the post from Pas – Its own coalition partner.

Rather than strengthening itself by confronting its political opponents, Bersatu chose to cannibalise its ally.

That act has almost certainly pushed the relationship to the brink of irreparable damage.

The coalition still holds – for now – because neither party has a viable alternative.

But politics is fluid, and circumstances inevitably change.

When they do, it is difficult to see how Bersatu and Pas can continue pretending that this betrayal never occurred.

4. Zahid’s leadership test

Umno’s party election in March 2026 will answer one of the most pressing questions in Malaysian politics: will Zahid Hamidi remain Umno president?

Zahid is deeply unpopular within the party.

It was his decision to call the November 2022 general election that transformed what could have been a manageable outcome into a devastating defeat.

Prior to that election, Umno had momentum – winning both Malacca and Johor, while Najib’s imprisonment had stirred sympathy and mobilisation among the grassroots.

Zahid squandered that momentum.

Despite Umno’s collapse, he emerged not weakened, but elevated – securing the position of deputy PM.

He also received a discharge not amounting to acquittal on 47 corruption-related charges in September 2023.

This stands in stark contrast to Najib, the party’s more popular figure, who has faced relentless legal defeats.

Since Umno’s last internal election in 2023, Zahid’s leadership has taken the party from bad to worse.

He retains power largely because he enjoys the support of Anwar Ibrahim, and because he has systematically neutralised potential challengers such as Khairy Jamaluddin and Hishammuddin Hussein.

Whether Zahid can continue clinging to the Umno presidency -despite the party’s deteriorating condition – will be one of the most closely watched political dramas of 2026.

The reckoning ahead

If 2026 has a defining theme, it is this: survival, fragmentation, and reckoning.

State elections, coalition fractures, opposition realignments and leadership battles will converge to determine not just who governs – but whether Malaysia’s current political architecture can endure at all.

Nehru Sathiamoorthy is a regular content creator for a news aggregator app.

Support our work by making a donation. Tap to download the QR code below and scan this QR code from Gallery by using TnG e-wallet or most banking apps: