Negri Sembilan crisis exposes mismatch of electoral system and political landscape

BENEDICT LOPEZ

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Project Stability and Accountability for Malaysia (Projek Sama) warns that the political crisis in Negeri Sembilan stems from a poor fit between our outdated electoral system and our divided political landscape, and that there may be replays elsewhere if both stay the same.

When no party can win a majority alone, coalition governments are necessary – a normal feature of mature parliamentary democracies. In countries with proportional representation, parties can form post-election coalitions without first demanding that voters support their allies.

Under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, Malaysian parties opt to form permanent coalitions or electoral pacts, asking their supporters to vote for their allies. When these allies walk away after the election, voters feel betrayed.

This is what happened in Negri Sembilan, when voters were asked to vote for Umno on Pakatan Harapan’s behalf and now Umno walks away, and in the Sheraton Move, when they voted for Bersatu as part of PH and then Bersatu pulled out.

In both Negri Sembilan and the Sheraton Move, this damages public trust and demands urgent changes in mindset, practice and the political system itself.

The Sheraton Move has delivered part of the solution – anti-hopping laws at both federal and state levels, which have since curbed mass defections by individual lawmakers to topple a government.

Had Umno-Barisan Nasional contested under a common permanent-coalition banner with PH in 2023, Negeri Sembilan’s anti-hopping law might have triggered 14 by-elections.

The Negri Sembilan political crisis calls for a solution to a more complicated source of grievance: the en masse withdrawal by a party from an electoral and governing pact.

READ MORE:  Krisis Negeri Sembilan dedah ketidakserasian sistem pilihan raya dengan landskap politik semasa

The core challenge is how to spare voters from having to support a party (B) they distrust, without preventing their preferred party (A) from forming a government with B after the election.

Under the FPTP system, many voters are backed into a corner: they must either vote for an unwanted ally or stay home. Both options reduce their political power. Solving this is in the interest of every political party and the health of our democracy.

The institutional fix is to add closed-list proportional representation (CLPR) seats on top of existing FPTP seats. This would give voters two votes: one for a local candidate, one for any party statewide.

In Negri Sembilan, for example, if 12 CLPR seats were added to the existing 36 FPTP seats, a simulation based on 2023 vote shares (PH 39%, BN 38%, PN 22%) would yield the following allocation: PH (5), BN (5), PN (2).

Such a narrow margin between seats would naturally boost voter turnout as voters could support their preferred party (A) through the CLPR ballot, regardless of who is on their FPTP ballot.

This will force parties to work hard to earn the trust of their allies’ supporters instead of simply relying on the alliance to pull them through.

Consequently, any party considering a post-election ‘break-up’ will have to think twice, as they will no longer be able to easily harvest the votes of their former partners.

Amending Articles 116 and 117 of the Federal Constitution to allow this is an undeniably difficult task, but it is a conversation that must start now. Concerns that such a system might further polarise Malaysian politics deserve a serious, evidence-based public debate, not knee-jerk dismissal.

READ MORE:  Krisis Negeri Sembilan dedah ketidakserasian sistem pilihan raya dengan landskap politik semasa

Until such a reform is in place, Projek Sama urges for the following:

For parties: Avoid entering permanent coalitions or completely ruling out absolute power-sharing with specific political parties unless promises can be upheld. Changing their rigid stand after an election would backfire on public trust.

Political parties or coalitions should opt for limited electoral pacts with compatible parties where some multi-cornered fights might be allowed, preserving the voter’s right to choose.

For voters: Simply sitting out does not reduce frustration, as it only reduces political power. The best option for voters is to back their party of choice (A) whenever they are on the ballot; however, if only Party B – an ally of Party A – is contesting, to rigorously scrutinise B’s credibility.

A Negri Sembilan state government must command the confidence of the majority of state assembly members. This can be achieved through a single-coalition majority, the formation of a coalition government to reach a majority, or even a minority government supported by members of the opposition via a confidence and supply agreement.

Changes in government should happen through a formal vote of confidence or no confidence. Crucially, any obstruction of these democratic processes cannot last more than six months; at that point, the state assembly automatically dissolves to pave the way for a fresh election.

Following the withdrawal of Barisan Nasional’s 14 assembly members from the PH-led government, the democratic options are clear: either a reconfigured government that reflects the new balance of power, or an early election.

While both paths are constitutionally permissible, political actors should be mindful that voters will ultimately judge the legitimacy of their choices.

READ MORE:  Krisis Negeri Sembilan dedah ketidakserasian sistem pilihan raya dengan landskap politik semasa

While Article 10 of the Negeri Sembilan State Constitution empowers the four Undangs to remove the Yang di-Pertuan Besar, this requires two conditions to be met:

  • specific grounds – severe disability, defects rendering him unfit for the high office of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar under Sharia law, or deliberate disregard of the state constitution
  • a full and complete inquiry

As these conditions are not manifestly fulfilled, Tuanku Muhriz ibni Tuanku Munawir remains the legitimate Head of State.

With Malaysia already facing a global economic crisis arising from the United States’ and Israel’s war on Iran, all parties and institutions must act responsibly.

The people deserve stability – not the absence of change, but the maintenance of predictability and public trust amid necessary changes.

To achieve stability, we must continuously scrutinise our institutional frameworks and behavioural patterns to eliminate wrong incentives. – Projek Sama

The views expressed in Aliran's media statements and the NGO statements we have endorsed reflect Aliran's official stand. Views and opinions expressed in other pieces published here do not necessarily reflect Aliran's official position.

AGENDA RAKYAT - Lima perkara utama
  1. Tegakkan maruah serta kualiti kehidupan rakyat
  2. Galakkan pembangunan saksama, lestari serta tangani krisis alam sekitar
  3. Raikan kerencaman dan keterangkuman
  4. Selamatkan demokrasi dan angkatkan keluhuran undang-undang
  5. Lawan rasuah dan kronisme
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